FEMA resumes resilience funding to communities
A developing El Niño impacts the 2026 hurricane forecast, the National Hurricane Center releases another change to its hurricane cone graphic, FEMA reopens grants through the BRIC program after a court order, and grants states extra time to complete mitigation projects. It’s all in this week’s Disaster Management Digest.
The 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast: AccuWeather predicts an average to below average storm season, with 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes – with three to five making a direct impact on the U.S. This is thanks to a developing El Niño in the Gulf and a shifting climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. On average, when ocean surface temperatures rise at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit, forecasters will refer to the phenomenon as an El Niño, which causes wind shear across the Atlantic that cuts down storms before they can even start. However, this year, AccuWeather is predicting a 15% chance of a “super El Niño,” (when temperatures rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) during storm season and NOAA is putting the odds even higher, at a 1-in-3 chance of a Super El Niño by October 1. This can spell good news for coastal communities, further disrupting storm formations in the Gulf with a greater chance for a quieter end to the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Despite the forecasted lower numbers, experts warn of the rapid intensification trend we’ve seen over the past few years, imploring everyone to stay on high alert and prepare for the worst.
From: AccuWeather
Hurricane Cone Change: NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced further changes to its well-known tropical cyclone forecast cone, a powerful tool in helping stay one step ahead of the storms. This is a further update on the 2025 iteration of the cone, that will now post associated wind hazards and even alerts for inland areas. Importantly, the new graphic synthesizes all land-based tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the U.S., Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, making it a one stop resource for anyone who could be affected by the storms. A legend on the forecast shows current warning overlaps that are color coded, including wind field estimates. Alongside the formally implemented changes, NHC has added an experimental cone graphic to the site, that is testing the idea of using ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point instead of the usual circles. This captures a wider range of possibilities for storm speed and direction, including 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67%. The new graphics with details can be found here.
An example of the 2026 version of the cone graphic for 2024’s Hurricane Milton that shows inland watches and warnings. Courtesy, NOAA National Hurricane Center
Rebuilding, BRIC by BRIC: After a federal judge ruled against FEMA eliminating the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program last December, the agency has reopened applications for $1 billion in major resilience grants. While this is less than the roughly $3.6 billion in unfinished projects that were left in atrophy after BRIC’s cancellation, it is a nice push for communities to make some meaningful storm mitigation efforts. Funding is back online, but it comes with some new rules, reflective of the Trump administration’s push for emergency management to be handled more on a local level. FEMA stated it is prioritizing major infrastructure projects with plans that are “ready to implement;” however, that can leave behind smaller communities that lack the necessary expertise to secure funding. But these communities aren’t entirely out of luck, as the new grants have dollar caps for single recipients and give extra scoring weight to underfunded communities to help evenly distribute the funding.
The Trump administration’s previous directive also included ceasing funding for hazard mitigation projects. But that may be softening, too, as our educated readers will connect the dots as LMA has. FEMA last week announced that Florida and 18 other states and two U.S. territories will have more time to finish projects in the works that help prevent damage from future disasters. These projects, funded through FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Post Fire, aim to protect communities from disasters like floods, earthquakes, wildfires, and hurricanes.
LMA Newsletter of 3-30-26
