Look for more insurance jobs, too
A new report opens a crystal ball into Florida’s economic future over the next 30 years and it is a rosy picture of continued growth, employment, and development. Florida’s economic output is expected to more than double over the next 30 years, reaching more than $4.6 trillion in goods and services produced here by 2049. Other reports out this past week show consumer confidence rebounding and Florida taking high marks as a low-tax state.
The Florida & Metro Economic Forecast July 2019 produced by the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting is a 136-page snapshot of Florida’s economy in 2049. In addition to the Gross State Product growing by more than 2.5 time its current value, job growth is expected to continue and at least over the next three years, continue to outpace the nation. Job growth will average 1.5% from 2019-2022, putting more Floridians back to work and attracting out-of-state job seekers.
No large shifts in employment are expected. Employment in the Financial and Insurance sector is predicted to grow from its current 395,000 employees to 416,700 by the end of 2022, and to nearly 475,000 by the year 2049. That’s the third fastest growing job sector, behind Professional & Business Services and Construction. New housing construction will remain consistent as people retire, move to Florida, and buy homes.
In other economic news this month, consumer confidence among Floridians has rebounded after a sharp decline the previous month. The June Consumer Sentiment Index shows confidence rose 1.2 points in June to 97.2 from May’s revised figure of 96. Of the index’s five components, three increased and two decreased. Florida consumers were more optimistic about their personal financial situations today and a year from now, and about U.S. economic conditions five years from now.
“Overall opinions are split by income level and age,” said Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which produces the monthly report. “Those with income level above $50,000 reported an increase in consumer sentiment, while those with income under $50,000 reported a decrease. Similarly, respondents under the age of 60 reported an increase in confidence, while people 60 and older reported the opposite. Overall though, Floridians are more optimistic,” Sandoval said.
Meanwhile, Florida continues to rank in the top five in the U.S. for commercial real estate development. An annual survey by the National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Research Foundation shows Florida ranked fifth, behind only Texas, New York, California, and Tennessee. Commercial real estate projects pumped $20 billion into Florida’s economy last year and employed 161,000 people.
There’s positive news to report on the tax front as well. The Tax Foundation report on state and local tax burdens shows Florida with the 46th lowest tax burden in the country. Tax collections last year amounted to an average $3,478 per Floridian. New York, with the highest tax burden in the country, has a per capita collection of $8,957. They’re moving here for more than just the warm weather and nice beaches, folks!
LMA Newsletter of 7-15-19