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An Updated Hurricane Season Forecast Emerges as Tropics Heat Up

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Plus, Congress’ proposed FEMA fix

Forecasters adjust expectations for the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, a bipartisan FEMA reform bill emerges in Congress, and the My Safe Florida Home program opens applications with $280 million to help homeowners get ahead of the storms.  It’s all in this week’s Disaster Management Digest.

Hurricane Season Update: It’s been a sleepy hurricane season thus far, with four named storms but no Atlantic hurricanes.  However, the peak of the season is still ahead of us.  NOAA has slightly lowered its predictions: it’s now calling for 13-18 named storms (down from 13-19) and five to nine hurricanes (down one).   NOAA is still forecasting an above average season but the chance of that has also diminished to 50% (from 60% originally).  Factors include above average sea surface temperatures and an active monsoon in West Africa, but without an El Niño or La Niña in effect this summer, the wind shear sits around average.  Colorado State University’s updated forecast hasn’t budged – 16 named storms and 8 hurricanes – albeit with “lower-than-normal confidence” now because of “Caribbean shear” this summer associated with less active hurricane seasons.  We urge readers to follow the National Hurricane Center as tropical activity this week may produce the season’s first Atlantic hurricane.

FEMA Acting Director David Richardson testifies before Congress on July 23, 2025, just prior to introduction of the “FEMA Act”

Congress’ FEMA Fix: FEMA has been experiencing quite a shakeup in recent months, with rumors ranging from complete shutdown to renaming after the FEMA Review Council was established.  Now, Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) Committee leaders have introduced legislation in the U.S. House that would bring robust change to the agency – called the Fixing Emergency Management for Americans Act (H.R. 4669) or “FEMA Act” for short.  Steered by the bipartisan duo of T&I Committee Chairman Sam Graves (R-MO) and Ranking Member Rick Larsen (D-WA), the text mirrors the structure of the Stafford Act and focuses on streamlining FEMAs efforts and allocations of funds.  It establishes FEMA as a cabinet-level agency out from under DHS, switches to project-based grants instead of reimbursements, and replaces the current patchwork of disaster aid forms with a universal application housed at a one-stop web portal.  The bill cuts through other restrictive red tape, clarifies the denial and appeal process, and simplifies procurements so communities can recover faster when disaster strikes.  Meanwhile, a federal judge has granted an injunction on behalf of the 20 states who sued FEMA over pulled funding from the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, stopping the $4 billion from being reallocated.  Under the FEMA Act, BRIC has been reformed and placed under review, not canceled.  You can read more about specific changes in the committee’s press release and a section-by-section summary.  Sections impacting insurance are: 106, 107, 114-117, 208, 302-308, and 410-412.

Lisa Miller shares tips on using the My Safe Florida Home program, August 4, 2025. Courtesy WJXT-TV, Jacksonville

Homeowners Helping Themselves: Applications are now open for homeowners wanting a share of the $280 million recently allocated by the Florida Legislature for the My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program.   The program provides free home inspections and matching grants (at a 2:1 rate) to help fortify homes against hurricanes. Low-income homeowners receive initial priority during the two-step application process. 

I spoke at length about the program and its importance in a recent television interview to News4Jax.  I stressed the ways we can strengthen our homes – the two most important features are the openings (windows, doors, and garage door) and the roof.  The MSFH program offers wind-certification inspections and up to $10,000 in grant money for critical hurricane-resistant home upgrades, including things like fixing shingles or replacing an old asphalt roof.  I urged viewers to at least apply for the wind certification inspection, as the resulting insurance discounts can amount to 30% to 40% of the premium.  Doing so also brings peace of mind that your home is storm ready and greater confidence that you can ride out of the storm unless there is a mandatory evacuation.  We here at LMA are praying everyone has a safe storm season!

LMA Newsletter of 8-11-25

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Tags: Atlantic Hurricane Season, Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, Disaster Management, Federal Disaster Relief, FEMA, FEMA Act, FEMA Disaster Reimbursement, FEMA Individual Assistance Program, Fixing Emergency Management for Americans Act (FEMA Act), Hurricane Forecast, hurricane mitigation, Hurricane Preparedness, My Safe Florida Home Program, NOAA, Wind Mitigation

“A high-profile attempt to undo recent litigation reforms that helped stabilize the insurance market was successfully defeated. We’re grateful to trusted experts like Lisa Miller (former Florida Deputy Insurance Commissioner, now one of the state’s top insurance advocates) for providing ongoing updates during every legislative session.”

Whitney Ricci, President & Founder
Ricci Insurance Group
Jacksonville, FL

“I have followed your weekly newsletter and podcasts and now have a full appreciation for what you bring to this industry.  You are an inspiring force, plain and simple.  I wanted you to know that you make a difference.  Thank you for all you do!”

Jeffrey Karam, CPCU
Bradenton, FL

“Another great Newsletter on Florida industry this week.  Your service and advocacy in Florida is very important to keeping me updated and apprised of the Florida insurance laws, trends and overall environment.  Something similar is very much needed in Louisiana, too.”

Jennifer Tedesco, Esq., Claims Director
Pharos Claims Services
Orlando, FL

“Just a quick note to let you know how much I have appreciated your newsletter over the years and the assistance they offer for those in the field of claims. We depend on the information more than you will ever know!”

Laurie Rasberry, Chief Claims Officer
Acorn Claims
Prosper, Texas

“I do not know how to say in words the heartfelt thankfulness that you took the time to listen to me, heard me, and then TOOK action to get something done after the long emotional and FINANCIAL struggle with…the hardship of paying upfront for all the repairs from Hurricane Sally. I cannot say enough of how I appreciate you, your attitude of wanting to help people and the next step to actually take action to do something is amazing.”

Ramona Speer, Realtor®
Gulf Breeze, FL

“Thank you for all you do for the industry and the Verisk team. We are forever grateful and excited for the future. Getting your insight in my inbox is exactly what I need!”

John Haddad, Director of Product - XactAnalysis
Verisk Claims

“Keep up the great work, Lisa! I enjoy your updates!”

John Askins, Former Director
Florida Department of Financial Services, Division of Insurance Fraud

“I really like your newsletter. It’s informative and to the point, even to the layperson. You are absolutely an asset to your industry. Keep it up please!”

Rivers H. Buford, III, Veteran Florida legislative and regulatory leader, retired

“You are under-thanked and under-appreciated for all the work you do for our industry but I’m one guy who really appreciates the information you gather and share.  Many times I pass it along to my clients. Many thanks.”

Dan Brown, Sr., President
Brown and Brown Insurance
Orlando, FL

“Lisa is truly an insurance industry dynamo who operates her business with integrity and zealous representation. She is the person that legislators call upon when they have questions regarding necessary insurance reforms. Lisa is a tireless advocate for the protection of all Floridians and their property.”

Greg Holder, Retired Judge and Attorney
Zinober Diana & Monteverde P.A.
Tampa, FL

“Lisa, I was delighted to get your newsletter. It is very professional and a great read about what’s going on. It was good to see you doing the things you’ve always done so well. You were always a great source of input when I was in the Capitol and glad to see you are still providing such great assistance.”

Frank Messersmith, former Florida state representative, 1980-1990

“Congrats on your 17- year anniversary at Lisa Miller & Associates®!  You have created an awesome legacy and helped numerous companies, agents, and clients!  Enjoy listening to your podcasts and reading your newsletter!  Best way to keep up with what is happening in the FL insurance world.”

William McArthur, VP of Claims
Claims Adjustment Group (CAG)

“Lisa this is another great newsletter, and we appreciate the time and energy you put into these informative updates – you are on top of these topics!”

Mike Graham, CEO
Smart Vent Products, Floodproofing.com, & Risk Reduction Plus
Juno Beach, FL

“Keep informing and fighting!”

Mary Ann Medina, VP Client Partnerships
Charles Taylor
Lake Mary, FL

“Thank you Lisa for staying on top of, as well as advocating, for Florida residents and legislative reform. Your newsletters are very informative and enjoy reading the points of view.”  

Shawna Miller, Sr. Claims Quality Assurance & Compliance Manager
Florida Peninsula Insurance Company
Jacksonville, FL

“Thank you for the information. I enjoy the info that you share and in turn, I share with my daughter and her husband. Sending love and best wishes to you!”

Paula, lifelong hometown of Plant City pal

“Lisa Miller is a true champion for the insurance industry, with her regular updates! We appreciate all you do and keeping us up to date on priority issues!”

Gillian Lloyd, Account Executive
Zywave
Milwaukee, WI

“Lisa, you will always be a public servant and your newsletters have shared valuable information to many. These newsletters are not five minute follow up reports. You’ve been to these disasters first hand and understand people lose everything and the elderly are the most vulnerable. It’s truly sad. Thank You for being sincere, when most are looking for ratings.”

John Greer, retired from construction, Plant City

“Thank you, Lisa, for your tireless work on behalf of the industry and the citizens of Florida. This post is incredibly comprehensive and helpful. Stay safe my friend.”

Mel Russell, President & CEO
Russell Insurance Consulting
St. Petersburg, FL

“Just wanted to say that I thoroughly love your newsletter. It’s is always informative and insightful to the ins and outs of our industry.  You are an inspiration and an important asset in the insurance world.  Keep up the great work!” 

Cynthia Scott, President
University Insurance Group
Davie, FL

“What a great outreach and platform. God Bless.”

Ken Donohue, Former Inspector General
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

“I wanted to write to tell you that this newsletter is the best in the industry. I look forward to it every week! Thank you for all that you do.”

Rebecca Leadbeater, Regulatory Compliance Analyst
Frank Winston Crum Insurance
Clearwater, FL

“I really do enjoy your newsletter – it is fantastic for the insurance industry in Florida.”

Bill Wilson, former PURE SAC Chair
PURE Insurance Company

“Lisa is a wealth of knowledge and produces some very useful content. I read her newsletter every week, it has great content, and I learn a lot. Thank you for being such an advocate Lisa and educating all of us.”

Tim O’Keefe, Director
KW Property Management & Consulting
Fort Lauderdale, FL

“Wow, what a dazzling amount of expertise and content, Lisa! You continue to amaze after 40-years of being amazing. Your newsletter is extraordinary. Congratulations!”

D. Joel Whalen, Associate Professor
DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business & Past President, Association for Business Communication

“Your newsletter is fabulous!  I greatly appreciate the topics you expose, so that insurance professionals like myself can keep up with the latest events that affect the public we serve and ourselves.”

Cynthia Hoehn, Independent Property & Casualty Personal Lines insurance agent
Clermont, FL

“I absolutely loved your AM Best Interview – watched it twice! You have always been so impressive and inspiring to the insurance profession. The interview packed so much information into just a few minutes. Thanks for sharing. Please don’t stop, we all enjoy your insight.”

John Burkholder, Principal
Municipal Partners, LLC
2016 Public Risk Manager of the Year

“Great article on Risk Rating 2.0!”

Austin Perez, Senior Policy Representative for Federal Housing, Valuation, Insurance and Commercial Issues
National Association of Realtors
Washington, D.C.

“Hello Lisa, EXCELLENT articles! I love your newsletter. Already shared with my office!”

Ana Regina Myrrha, Agency Principal
American Insurance Point
Orlando, FL

“The great thing about reading your newsletter Lisa, is that I can 100% trust that the info in it is completely accurate. Thank you for the time that you invest in this newsletter to keep everyone informed on new things going on in the industry.”

Lori Hall, Business Development Manager
Haag

“Just a quick note to say I always enjoy reading your newsletter. I have found many occasions to share it with family and friends who can’t understand why their insurance is expensive, as well as fellow employees. It is a great source of information in general, and especially helpful during the hectic times when work requires that I focus more narrowly on the task at hand, as it helps me keep sight of the big picture.”

Adam Marmelstein, Director of Agency & Market Services

“Lisa, thank you for sending your newsletter to me. It keeps me up with news I can use. I hope all is well with you and wish you continued success.”

George E. Kelly, Jr.
GK Consulting LLC
Hartford, CT

“Wow, what a great picture and worth a thousand words! I’ve been reading/listening religiously to your newsletters/podcasts. They’ve been a tremendous source of information. Thank you!”

Austin Perez, Senior Policy Advisor
National Association of Realtors®
Gulf Breeze, FL

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