Miami-Dade condos “are the next great crisis”
Florida’s housing market cools off, Miami-Dade’s condo market sees values drop, while the South Florida commercial real estate market excels thanks to new out-of-state companies and workers. It’s all in this week’s Florida Economy News.
Florida’s Housing Market: Not too long ago, Florida’s housing market was seeing record-breaking price growth with hordes of Americans relocating down South. But according to studies and real estate agents, the market has begun to lose steam, with Southwest Florida seeing homes sit for longer and longer – perhaps not a crash, but a definite readjustment due to the ballooning inventory. Thousands of listings have popped up from Lee County (17,000 listings) to Collier (9,000) to Charlotte (5,800), but the problem is, no one is biting. In fact, Florida now has the fourth stalest housing market for 2025 according to data from Redfin and Zillow compiled by Investors Observer. 58.3% of homes still sat unsold after 60 days, with a further 34.5% showing price drops, indicating a clear shift of seller priority. If they aren’t dropping the prices, sellers are usually making the costly home improvements one might need to attract buyers in hurricane-prone Florida – the most common being a new roof. Experts, like Dr. Shelton Weeks from Florida Gulf Coast University, contend that the shift is underpinned by “higher interest rates, increasing insurance premiums, and declining affordability,” which only get worse with large scale disasters. Thankfully, these same minds tell us that a major market crash, like 2008, is unlikely, and maybe the true cost of owning a home in Florida needs to include that new roof, and full insurance coverage.
Miami-Dade Condo Concerns: Perhaps hit hardest by the softening real estate demand is Florida’s condominium market, which has been at the forefront of discussion in recent years. Tougher safety regulations on old buildings have led to a confluence of pressures on the Miami-Dade condo market – where homes and commercial properties had appreciated around 7% at the start of the year, but condos were down around 1% according to a June 1 report on taxable values for the county. While property value growth is down to single digits for the first time since 2021, these averages show a return to equilibrium according to Property Appraiser Tomás Regalado, who cast his worries more towards the condominium landscape. “The condos are the next great crisis, because of a perfect storm,” he said at a press conference early this month. To his point, sales of condos and townhomes were down 21% in Miami-Dade County in April, and the median sales price had only gone up $1,000 from 2024’s $444,000, showing a clear softening of growth and a growing challenge to the condo market.
Miami-Dade Commercial Real Estate Hot: On the bright side, Miami-Dade and nearby Broward and Palm Beach counties are doing very well on the commercial real estate front. Shifts in the workplace have spelled disaster for much of the country’s commercial real estate, where remote work means office vacancies and higher interest rates on downtown buildings. However, South Florida seems to have dodged a bullet, with the migration of out-of-state companies and workforces to Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, coupled with no new supply in the commercial real estate space insulating the Sunshine State’s skylines. This year in particular has been a hotbed of activity, with nearly $3 billion in deals closed during Q1 of 2025 according to data from the Miami Association of Realtors. Commercial sales across multifamily, office, industrial, and retail spaces were up 32% in South Florida’s three major counties. These large trades are indicative of a shift towards quality, low-risk investments, which suggest property values will remain strong moving forward. Miami was rated the second most attractive market for commercial real estate investment in the U.S. by CRBE for the second year in a row.
LMA Newsletter of 6-16-25
