August 28, 2019, PM Update – Dorian became a hurricane this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph at the 5pm report and has moved across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, remaining on an eventual path to Florida and the Southeast U.S.
Dorian has tracked further northeast than forecast, missing Hispaniola and Puerto Rico entirely. It will continue moving northwestward over the next couple days before turning more west-northwestward or westward over the weekend. Conditions are favorable for continued organization and strengthening over the next few days. Dorian is forecast to be a major hurricane (Category 3) as it approaches Florida on Sunday and Monday.
The exact track is unknown after Day 4. The chances for a northeastward turn off the East Coast are decreasing. However, the odds for Dorian making it into the Gulf are increasing. Hurricane Hunters will continue to investigate the system regularly over the next few days.
The entire Florida Peninsula, Northeast Florida, and the Big Bend are included in the 5-day forecast cone. There are no watches or warnings in effect, but tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued as early as Thursday. After Sunday, Dorian could re-emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should it track over Central or South Florida, or could move northward inland towards Georgia.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis this afternoon issued Executive Order 19-189, declaring a state of emergency for counties in the path of Hurricane Dorian; specifically Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hendry, Highlands, Indian River, Lake, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Volusia, and Union. More counties could be added as the storm progresses.
We are talking with county emergency management teams on storm preparations. Several central and north-central counties report being saturated with water from recent rains and fear any additional rain from Dorian will create flooding.
The Governor is urging all Floridians on the East Coast to prepare for impacts, including having seven days of food, water and medicine on hand. He said residents who don’t have a plan need to take time now to make one.
Click here for a full briefing with maps. Please prepare and be aware!
Lisa & the LMA team
