Helene Expected to be a Cat 3-4 Hurricane Heading for Florida’s Big Bend

September 24, 2024 PM Update Helene graduated to a Tropical Storm at the 5pm update today from the National Hurricane Center.  With it, most of the hurricane watches along Florida’s west coast and the Big Bend turned into hurricane warnings as forecasters warn Helene could certainly intensify to up to a major Category 4 hurricane (on the scale of 1-5, with winds from 130-156 mph) by the time it makes landfall Thursday evening somewhere between Mexico Beach and Tarpon Springs.  In the middle of the forecast track cone is the coast that’s just 30 miles south of the state capitol of Tallahassee.

Per NOAA, with a Cat 4 “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls.  Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed.  Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas.  Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.  Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

Those hurricane warnings include inland areas due to the storm’s expected intensity, fueled by the 88-degree waters of the upper Gulf of Mexico.  On Florida’s west coast, the entire Tampa Bay area south to the Florida Keys is under a tropical storm warning, with some areas also under a hurricane watch.  Being a relatively narrow peninsula compared to a big storm like Helene, tropical storm warnings are also up on Florida’s east coast from Martin County north through Georgia

The size and breadth of Helene is one of the reasons Governor DeSantis today extended Monday’s pre-fall disaster declaration from 41 counties to 61 of Florida’s 67 counties.   Indeed, few parts of Florida will be spared some impact from Helene.  The Governor, at a morning news conference, said the impacts could be felt 100 miles to 200 miles from the center, calling it “a potentially very dangerous storm.”  He noted “there’s some similarities to the track that was taken on Hurricane Michael,” the Panhandle’s last major hurricane, which made landfall in Mexico Beach with 160 mph sustained winds.

 

There will also be significant potentially life-threatening storm surge as well, as the high wind literally pushes shallow Gulf of Mexico water ashore into coastal communities and beyond.  Again, storm surge watches have now become warnings, with surges from 10-15 feet likely in the Big Bend.  The entire Tampa Bay area could see storm surge from 5-8 feet, which is enough to cause significant widespread flooding.  One forecaster warned “there’s going to be significant storm surge going inland from the St. Marks, Steinhatchee, and Suwannee Rivers.

 

As of this evening, rainfall of between 8-12” with moderate flooding is forecast, but because this a large storm, 5-10” of rain along the coast is possible, forecasters warn.  There’s also a threat of tropical tornadoes, too.  River flooding is expected to be an issue through the next seven days.  The National Weather Service’s experimental Flood Hazard Outlook (FHO) provides a graphic display to alert inland areas to potential flash-flooding and river impacts over that period.  You can view the FHO product here.

Preparations: The Governor said about 18,000 utility line workers are being pre-positioned to make needed repairs to power lines that may get blown-down or destroyed, with more on the way.  His executive order also activated 3,000 members of the Florida National Guard and the Florida State Guard.  He has asked FEMA for a pre-landfall federal disaster declaration and said he expects it will be approved soon, enabling federal funding of the disaster response. 

Florida Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said late this afternoon that given Tallahassee and its coastal areas to the south are in the middle of the forecast cone, that’s where the most intense preparation is underway.  Florida High School has been designated as a special needs shelter for surrounding counties who expect mass evacuations.  That will open at 6pm tomorrow (Wednesday) and be able to handle 613 people.  The coastal county of Wakulla, between Tallahassee and the Gulf of Mexico, has ordered its entire county population to evacuate their homes.   Likewise,  Franklin County just to the west, has ordered mandatory evacuations for the barrier islands of Alligator Point, Dog Island, and St. George Island and were planning to issue a mandatory evacuation tonight for the rest of the county.  Those counties will rely on Leon County (Tallahassee) to shelter their evacuees at seven shelters to be opened at 6pm tomorrow.  Guthrie said he has plans to consolidate all the shelters after the storm at the city’s large Donald Tucker Convention Center in downtown Tallahassee.  Other counties, for now less directly in the forecasted path of Helene are opening their own shelters tomorrow and have already begun evacuation of mobile home parks and low-lying areas.  Many schools will begin closing tomorrow at midday.

Tallahassee and Leon County began opening sand bag locations yesterday, providing free sandbags to residents to help protect their homes from expected floodwaters.  Guthrie and his team at the state Division of Emergency Management are hosting twice-daily calls with all 67 counties to identify needs and to ensure the state is prepared to respond quickly and efficiently. 

Lines of cars await their turn for free sandbags at the Northeast Branch of the Leon County Public Library, September 24, 2024

Insurance Notes: The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) today issued a Notice to Industry on Hurricane Preparedness and Claims Handling.  It highlights important regulatory requirements and best practices to ensure efficient and proper claims handling pursuant to Florida law.  It includes a section on insurance companies implementing their claims-handling manuals.  Companies are required to acknowledge receipt of a claim within seven calendar days. Insurers must then make a claim determination within 60 days of receiving notice of a claim, notwithstanding a delay caused by factors beyond the control of the insurer.  It also includes handy reminders of preparedness measures within the insurance company.

OIR, in coordination with the Florida Department of Health, sent information regarding early prescription refills permitted under Executive Order 24-208.  This information was sent to the public, health insurers, managed care organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, pharmacy chains, and health care providers.

Click here for the full National Hurricane Center briefing with maps.  Visit FloridaDisaster.org/Updates for the very latest state disaster management information.  That includes a complete list of statewide evacuation orders and a list and current status of shelters.  You can also review our past Hurricane Updates and subscribe to receive future updates in your inbox.

Please know that we at Lisa Miller & Associates are here 24/7 for you.  It may sound trite but we are all in this together, my friends and colleagues.  Please prepare and be aware!

Lisa & the LMA team

(Here’s the latest news from the Governor’s Office on specific state preparedness actions and a list of mobilized resources:)

 

 

State Preparedness Efforts

  • The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) activated the State Emergency Operations Center to a Level 1 on Tuesday, September 24 and is leading coordination efforts for the State Emergency Response Team. 
  • FDEM is hosting twice-daily calls with all 67 counties to identify needs and to ensure the state is prepared to respond quickly and efficiently.
  • Additionally, FDEM is coordinating with state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private sector partners to facilitate ongoing resource requests for counties, including requests for water, generators and support personnel.
  • Nearly 500 missions are being facilitated by the State Emergency Response Team to assist counties in their preparation efforts. These missions accomplish vital tasks like prestaging response resources, protecting critical infrastructure facilities like hospitals and utility stations, and coordinating personnel statewide.
  • The Florida State Guard (FSG) has prepared the following:
    • 250+ Soldiers ready to deploy.
    • 10 shallow water vessel boat teams
    • 7 flat-bottom-flood rescue skiffs
    • 2 amphibious rescue vehicles
    • 12 UTV’s
    • 15 Cut and toss crews
    • 7 search and rescue teams
    • 1 UH-60 Blackhawk for daytime aerial assessment and logistics missions
  • The Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) is making plans to ensure continuity of operations in several critical areas including Missing Endangered Persons Information Clearinghouse and the Watch Desk.
  • FDLE logistics teams are moving and staging assets. 
  • FDLE is identifying squads for deployment and staffing for local emergency operations centers.
  • FDLE’s mutual aid team is at the State Emergency Operations Center coordinating law enforcement missions.
  • The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) has readied high-water vehicles and all other storm response resources statewide so they may be rapidly deployed to assist Floridians in need in the event of damage or flooding.
  • The FWC is fully integrated into the State Emergency Operations Center, and local FWC law enforcement representatives are coordinating closely with county and city emergency operations centers.
  • FWC officers are ready to deploy and respond with a variety of specialized equipment as necessary, such as:
    • Airboats
    • Shallow draft boats
    • ATVs/Side-by-sides
    • Larger platform vessels
    • Four-wheel vehicles
  • FWC Special Operations Group (SOG) teams will serve as reconnaissance units for the State EOC and report on damage after the storm has made landfall.
  • FWC Aviation Section has been placed on standby and has readied all appropriate aircraft for potential deployment for EOC aerial assistance, reconnaissance, and post-storm damage assessments when needed.
  • The Florida Department of Corrections (FDC) is monitoring the storm and preparing mitigation measures, including:
    • Mobilizing evacuation assets
    • Locating areas of evacuation
    • Establishing liaisons in our local county and municipal EOCs for storm assistance
  • The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) offices and facilities are finalizing storm preparations to ensure the safety and security of staff and youth. 
    • These actions include fueling all vehicles, moving vehicles in low-lying and flood-prone areas to higher ground, testing and ensuring adequate fuel supplies for generators in the event of loss of power, and ensuring food, medicine, and emergency supplies are stocked and ready. 
  • The Florida Department of State has been monitoring the storm for potential impacts and making preparations to secure historical properties.
  • The Florida Department of State, Division of Elections has been monitoring the storm and has been providing updates and information to Supervisors of Elections about potential impacts and resources available to their offices.
  • All Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) 7 Districts, Central Office, and FDOT’s Turnpike Enterprise initiated statewide internal preparedness conference calls beginning Monday, September 23, which continue daily.
  • FDOT continues close coordination with State EOC officials and partners.
    • FDOT team members have begun staffing the State EOC.
    • Responding to county requests for personnel and assets.
  • FDOT Statewide Preparedness Efforts Include:
    • 667 team members working in offices, and EOCs conducting pre-storm preparations.
    • 490 team members working in the field conducting pre-storm preparations.
    • 193 pieces of heavy equipment being used for pre-storm preparations.
    • 164 team members staged for cut and toss operations
    • 90 bridge inspectors staged for deployment
    • 28 team members staged for UAV (drone) deployment
    • 20 large pumps staged
    • 634 generators staged to assist with traffic signal power
    • 4 ITS trailers staged.
    • Clearing shoulders in preparation for potential Emergency Should Use (ESU). 
    • Currently analyzing flooding vulnerabilities for major roadways and bridges.
    • Inspecting and clearing drainage systems, monitoring flood-prone and currently saturated areas, and pre-positioning pumps as appropriate. 
    • Securing high mast lighting, maintenance yards, active construction projects, rest areas/welcome centers, service plazas, and weigh stations.
      • Howard Frankland Bridge barges and cranes anticipated to be fully secured by Wednesday, 9/25
    • Replenishing fuel reserves, checking generator readiness, and pre-positioning assets as appropriate. 
    • Completing repairs on malfunctioning vehicles and equipment in preparation for deployment.
    • Initiated communication with modal partners – seaports, airports, railroads, transit, and spaceports. All partners are currently in monitoring posture. 
    • Staging ITS trailers, as well as drone teams and equipment are being prepped and ready to deploy as needed. 
  • FDOT encourages drivers to download the FL511 app or visit FL511.com for road/bridge closures and potential detours that may be activated. Remember to always follow the direction of local law enforcement and emergency personnel. 
    • Seaports are open and preparing for storm.
    • Airports are open and monitoring the storm.
    • Railroads are open and monitoring the storm.
    • Transit agencies are open and monitoring the storm.
    • Spaceport partners are open and monitoring the storm.
  • The Florida Department of Veterans’ Affairs (FDVA) has alerted the home administrators of its nine State Veterans’ Homes of the approach of the coming storm. They are implementing their hurricane preparation checklists.
  • FDVA’s facilities have main generators in case of loss of power.
  • FDVA is in contact with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs leadership in Florida to coordinate potential clinic closure announcements.
  • Volunteer Florida has begun the following preparation efforts:
    • Daily Coordination calls with Florida Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters (VOAD);
    • Identifying partner capabilities, needs and gaps;
    • Ongoing coordination efforts with Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT); and
    • Identifying pre-staging locations of flood/cleanup kits, hygiene kits and tools.
    • Key Messaging to Partners:
      • Emphasizing the importance of “Cash, Confirm, Connect” strategy.
      • Promoting volunteer opportunities through Volunteer Connect.
      • Encouraging documentation of all donated resources and Volunteer hours.
      • Current rate of volunteer hours in the state of Florida is $31.61.
  • Florida Department of Management Services (FDMS) are working to identify potential evacuation shelter sites for special needs and pet friendly evacuees as far east as Lake City and west as Panama City.
  • FDMS identified a specific location to land helicopters and staff to potentially COOP from the EOC to Escambia County
  • FDMS is making early preparations with their vendors and have commenced for commodities as well as services.

Health and Human Services

  • The Agency for Persons with Disabilities (APD) is hosting calls with regional leadership and partners to provide storm information and determine any anticipated unmet needs.
  • APD is preparing policy documentation for anticipated storm event actions and providing regional staff with curfew letters for providers in potential counties with issued curfews.
  • The Florida Department of Health’s (DOH) Office of Communications is distributing information on social media platforms regarding emergency health topics, including flood water safety, special needs shelters, boil water notices and more. 
  • DOH and the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) sent information regarding early prescription refills permitted under Executive Order 24-209. This information was sent to the public, health insurers, managed care organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, pharmacy chains and health care providers.  
  • DOH is deploying over 130 emergency response vehicles. Staging is currently in Leon and Osceola counties.
  • The Pinellas County WIC office will close at 12:00 p.m. on 09/24/2024 and plan to re-open on 09/26/2024.
  • DOH’s Healthy Start program is reaching out to coalitions and providers located in areas of potential impact to ensure continuity of care for clients. Additionally, Healthy Start is alerting clients of potential weather impacts and connecting them to resources.
  • DOH’s Bureau of Women, Infant and Children (WIC) is alerting coordinators in areas of potential impact and preparing for remote operations, if needed.
  • DOH’s Bureau of Childcare Food is alerting providers in areas of potential impact and having them prepare for grab-and-go meals for clients post-landfall.
  • The Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) has been in communication with health care facilities as they are evaluating any potential evacuation plans.
  • AHCA will hold and participate in provider calls for TS9 preparation ahead of landfall. As of 10am today there are 4 facilities (3 ALFs and 1 nursing home) reporting that they are evacuating.
  • E-PLUS update:
    • 34 of the 41 (83%) counties in the EO have access to E-PLUS
    • Outreach is being conducted for counties with no access
    • Monitoring of the system will ramp up today
    • ENS Subscribers were notified of Special Needs Shelters Encounters that they may receive

Infrastructure, Roads and State Closures

  • The Florida Highway Patrol (FHP) is Relocating FHP command bus from Jacksonville to Washington County for staging for post-landfall use due to the State EOC possibly being in the storm’s path.
  • Communication established with Troop Commander’s in the potential impacted areas.
  • FHP is staffing ESF-16 with four (4) sworn members and one (1) non-sworn member effective today 7:00 a.m. 
  • FHP high-water rescue vehicles are prepared for use.
  • FHP is preparing high-water rescue vehicles.
  • Florida Highway Patrol’s Quick Reaction Force teams consisting of more than 120 members statewide stand ready to provide immediate response.
  • FHP remains in close communication with law enforcement and transportation partners and stands ready to assist with any potential impacts across the state. 
  • FLHSMV issued Emergency Order 24-05, which: waives specific requirements for commercial motor vehicles providing emergency relief; and waives the replacement fees for driver’s license and identification credentials, vehicle registrations and titles, vessel registrations and titles and temporary parking permits for impacted individuals.
  • The Department of Children and Families (DCF) is preparing for Tropical Storm Helene and has secured supplies should the Hope Bus need to be deployed.
  • DCF is working with the Community-Based Care Lead Agencies to contact foster families and group home providers to ensure preparedness. 
  • The State Mental Health Treatment Facilities have activated their disaster preparation plans and are assessing facility readiness.
  • DCF has begun contacting adult protective services clients to assess any needs and to ensure they have a plan in place. 
  • DCF has begun contacting Continuums of Care, licensed child care facilities, and licensed Substance Use Disorder treatment facilities to ensure they are prepared.
  • DCF’s behavioral health staff and the Managing Entities stand ready to deploy behavioral health resources, as needed.  
  • Through ESF 6, DCF is making preliminary preparations for staffing shelters, delivering emergency supplies, and directing generators to critical human services infrastructure.
  • The Department of Elder Affairs (DOEA) contacted all our Area Agencies on Aging partners and received the following updates:   
  • Elder Options (PSA 3)
    • Staff have initiated call-downs to clients to assess their needs. 
    • Providers have ordered emergency meals in case meal sites close. 
    • You Thrive Florida meal sites in Hernando, Lake, and Sumter counties will be closed on Thursday and Friday, and clients will receive shelf-stable meals. 
  • ElderSource (PSA 4) 
    • Staff have initiated call-downs to clients to assess their needs.
    • Area Agency on Aging of Pasco-Pinellas, Inc. (PSA 5) 
    • Staff have initiated call-downs to clients to assess their needs. 
    • Clients who require assistance with registering for the special needs registry are receiving assistance. 
  • Senior Connection Center (PSA 6) 
    • Staff have initiated call-downs to clients to assess their needs. 
    • Shelf-stable meals are being provided to individuals who express a need in case meal delivery services are disrupted later this week. 
  • Area Agency on Aging for Southwest Florida, Inc. (PSA 8) 
    • Staff have initiated call-downs to clients to assess their needs. 
  • The Florida Department of Education (FDOE) is contacting all school districts to assess needs in preparation for Tropical Storm Helene. For more information on school closures, visit https://www.fldoe.org/em-response/storm-info.stml.
  • The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is working with Florida’s Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network, the Florida Rural Water Association and other response agencies to ensure preparations are underway to support drinking and wastewater facilities ahead of the anticipated heavy rains.
  • All significant hazardous waste facilities in potentially affected counties are being notified to ensure all pre-storm preparations are being made. 
  • DEP has completed pre-storm beach surveys in all shoreline counties and staff are beginning to develop their post-storm response plan.
  • Florida’s water management districts are engaging to engage local governments and drainage operators throughout the state and are available to provide technical and other support, including deploying temporary pumps to alleviate localized flooding. As part of standard operations, DEP and Florida’s water management districts continue to monitor water systems and river levels as the storm’ develops.
  • DEP published a storm updates webpage to keep state park visitors updated of closures: FloridaStateParks.org/StormUpdates. Visitors with existing camping and cabin reservations at closed parks have been notified of their reservation status.

Resources for Employees, Businesses and Consumer

  • The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR) has organized Emergency Response Teams across 13 offices statewide, who are ready to deploy once it is safe to complete damage assessments and disaster inspections of licensed establishments.
  • DBPR has begun preparing personnel and securing and preparing fleet and resources ahead of potential impacts. DBPR is positioned to initiate continuity of operations protocols in all offices statewide.
  • Today, DBPR has proactively communicated with more than 137,000 restaurant and lodging licensees to provide storm preparation and food safety resources. 
  • DBPR encourages Florida’s licensed contractors who provide post-storm construction-related services to register with its Florida Disaster Contractors Network at DCNOnline.org.
  • FloridaCommerce is communicating and coordinating with private sector partners, encouraging them to review their emergency plans for their businesses and prepare their employees in advance of the weather event.
  • Updates on business closures and business resources are consistently being updated at FloridaDisaster.biz/CurrentDisasterUpdates.
  • CareerSource Florida hosted a call with 21 Local Workforce Development Boards and 38 Community Action Agencies across the state to prepare teams to assist local employees and employers after the weather event. To find your local career center visit careersourceflorida.com.
  • FloridaCommerce is working with private sector partner, the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association, to assist with sheltering needs in advance of the storm.
  • The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) is coordinating with Florida’s ports and fuel industry partners to ensure adequate fuel supplies are available across Florida, as well as with Florida’s agricultural partners to ensure producers have adequate resources and support.
  • The Florida Forest Service is staging equipment, like high-water vehicles, to support recovery operations.
  • The Insurance Commissioner Yaworsky of the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) has begun calling property and casualty insurance companies with consumers in the projected path of Tropical Storm Helene and directed insurers to be prepared to implement their disaster claims-handling procedures and be able to provide prompt and efficient claims-handling service to impacted policyholders. 
  • Insurers have been put on notice that the OIR is monitoring for appropriate and timely claims handling, and reminded of OIR’s fine authority for noncompliance. 
  • The OIR, in coordination with the Florida Department of Health (DOH), sent information regarding early prescription refills permitted under Executive Order 24-208. This information was sent to the public, health insurers, managed care organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, pharmacy chains, and health care providers.
  • The OIR’s IMT has been activated.

 

 

Tropical Storm Helene Update of September 24, 2024 PM Update