Hurricane Milton Sparking ‘Largest Evacuation Plan in Years’

Satellite image of Hurricane Milton off the Mexico coast on October 6, 2024. Courtesy, NOAA

October 6, 2024 PM Update – On the heels of Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton tonight is expected to grow into a major hurricane taking aim at the west-central Gulf Coast of Florida, an area hit hard by Helene storm surge flooding.  Milton was a Category 1 hurricane at 5pm with 85 mph winds, located about 800 miles West-Southwest of Tampa.  The National Hurricane Center said Milton could be a Category 3 hurricane (111-129 mph sustained winds) or higher at landfall although they cannot forecast its exact track, magnitude or timetable.  It is expected to make landfall sometime overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, perhaps as late as midday Wednesday.  Milton is expected to bring potentially life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds, and widespread torrential rain.  There’s also great concern tonight about the tons of debris left uncollected from Hurricane Helene, which we’ll expand on later in this update.

Despite no formal watches or warnings posted yet for Florida, state officials are gearing up in a big way.  “I have the State Emergency Response Team preparing for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely Since 2017 hurricane Irma,” said Florida Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie at a morning news conference with Governor DeSantis.  “Evacuate if you are an evacuation zone.  If you are not in an evacuation zone, and your house was built in conjunction with the Florida Building Code, which pretty much throughout the state of Florida, means after 2004, you may be better just to stay in place,” Guthrie advised. 

Governor DeSantis today expanded his emergency declaration to 51 Florida counties, given the expected size and unpredictability of the storm.  “I’d urge Floridians to take this storm very seriously, do not get wedded to the cone,” said DeSantis, noting that “Helene’s severity exceeded what the forecast had said.”  He also recalled the Florida emergency crews sent to North Carolina to help with Hurricane Helene recovery efforts.

Nearly the entire state, save the Florida Panhandle, is in the forecast cone.  The storm is forecast to be powerful enough to maintain hurricane strength as it passes across the Florida peninsula and exit into the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 1 hurricane, heading out to sea from there.  Forecasters expect the tropical storm field to grow significantly as Milton approaches Florida and maybe even the hurricane force wind fields.  There is discussion that Milton could actually grow larger than a Cat 3 storm – possibly becoming a Cat 5.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches are expected from Milton, with some places receiving up to 12” – more than enough to cause river and bay flooding.  Complicating matters, it’s already been raining heavily in South Florida this weekend from another system.  Several flash flood warnings are in place tonight in the I-95 corridor in South Florida just north of Miami.  This will create the potential for even greater flooding with Milton’s rains, as many parts of Florida have very wet soil from Helene and other rain.

Storm surge, as with Hurricane Helene – which caused monstrous 8-10 foot surge in the Tampa Bay area, inundating homes and responsible for some of the 20 Florida deaths – is also a major concern forecasters have about Milton.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.  “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts.  This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge.”

The evacuation zone map for the greater Tampa Bay area of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties

The evacuation zone map above of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties shows Zone A in red – the first residents in those zones in Pinellas began evacuation today.  Elevations in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) range from 6.5 feet below mean sea level to 114 feet above it, with the average being 13 feet above mean sea level.  Across the bays in Hillsborough County (where Tampa is located) elevations are better, ranging from 6.5 feet below mean sea level to 295 feet above it, with the average being 65 feet above mean sea level.  The Tampa Bay region is considered the most flood vulnerable of all metropolitan areas in Florida, as chronicled in the Tampa Bay Times piece It won’t take the ‘perfect storm’ to wreak havoc across Tampa Bay from January 2022.  With many of its communities situated near or surrounded by water, the area has the potential to become an extremely large insurance claims event in the event of a direct hit by a hurricane.  In fact, the paper reports, Pinellas County has nearly $30 billion in built property that could flood in Category 1 storms – more buildings and risk value than even Miami-Dade County.  The highlight of the article is a quote by National Hurricane Center storm surge specialist Jamie Rhome.

“What’s going to be the Achilles’ heel of Tampa, what is going to really surprise Tampa, is not a Cat 5.  It’s not a Michael, it’s going to be a big, sloppy Category 1 or 2,” Rhome said.  

Governor DeSantis today reiterated that point.  “Tampa Bay is very vulnerable to storm surge, especially if it’s on the dirty side of the storm,” referencing the northeast quadrant of hurricanes where winds that push storm surge are most extreme.

Preparations:  Compounding the needed preparation for Milton, county emergency managers now must also make sure that any households in their communities with Helene damage that haven’t been visited by FEMA yet to take pictures now and collect any other documentation of Helene damage and repair, to differentiate it from any new Milton damage that may occur.  The state if also requiring that any households participating in Helene relief must comply with any mandatory evacuation orders that may be issued in Milton.  All disaster relief centers related to Helene will close tomorrow (Monday) afternoon to prepare for Milton.  Continued Helene relief efforts are expected to be delayed by Milton.

The state is setting up four pre-landfall staging areas for equipment and supplies in North, Central, East Coast and South Florida locations, ready to move into impacted communities once Milton has moved through Florida.  The state has set up a big base camp at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg with various vendors ready to respond.  A pre-landfall disaster declaration is expected to be sent to Washington tonight or tomorrow to ask for FEMA disaster assistance with costs.  As it did with Helene, the state is making available on a limited bases, the Tiger Dam flood protections systems for communities that have vulnerable fire stations, water pump stations, and other infrastructure deemed critical to protect.

Coastal and inland counties in Florida are busy preparing for Milton’s landfall.  In Pinellas County, which saw the worst damage and most Florida deaths from Helene’s storm surge flooding, 75 healthcare facilities in evacuation zones A through C began evacuating about 6,700 residents today, further inland.  Special needs residents will be evacuated tomorrow (Monday).  With so many cars lost to flooding and sand inundation from Helene, more Pinellas residents will need help getting out of town with Milton.  Emergency managers say they expect to issue mandatory evacuations for Pinellas County tomorrow, as well as open the first shelters.

Farther south in Manatee County (where Bradenton is located) evacuations of residents in zones A and B will begin tomorrow at 2pm, which is when shelters will open as well.  In Sarasota County, schools will be closed tomorrow so some can be converted to evacuation centers, for residents living in evacuation zones A and AB.  On Florida’s East Coast, in Miami-Dade County, they are also preparing for flooding and wind impacts from Milton, especially on vulnerable mobile homes.

In Suwannee County and inland surrounding counties in what’s expected to be a relatively quieter North Florida, disaster managers say they are preparing for a heavy influx of evacuees, just as they saw in 2017’s Hurricane Irma, which made landfalls in the Keys and then Collier County, before moving across Florida.  Guthrie and his team are also busy identifying inland counties expected to be out of the storm’s path who are willing to open shelters for evacuees from impacted counties. 

Emergency management officials are urging residents to use the website fl511.com for emergency evacuation information.  A complete list of state preparedness efforts is located at the end of this update.

Hurricane Helene Debris: Debris left over from Hurricane Helene is, and will be, a big issue in Hurricane Milton this week.   There are tons of it still uncollected from the September 27 landfall.  The Governor said today that “all available assets” that can help with debris removal are being marshalled.  He acknowledged there was a problem with the Pinellas County landfill being locked, denied the state Department of Environmental Protection was involved, and ordered them and all other landfills to open and remain open round the clock.  The Governor’s initial emergency declaration on Saturday ordered “all Disaster Debris Management Sites and landfills in all counties impacted by Hurricane Helene to remain open and allow twenty-four-hour debris drop off.”  This is part of the State of Florida’s effort to ensure as much debris from Helene is cleaned up and disposed of ahead of the coming storm.  There is certainly the ecological harm that mold and other potential disease-laden debris can have on streams, rivers, and estuaries.  The debris can also become dangerous projectiles in major hurricane winds.

Hurricane Helene debris outside of a St. Petersburg business on September 28, 2024. Courtesy, Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office

“We are doing debris removal with every state agency asset that we have, everything from pickup trucks and trailers all the way to dump trucks and grapple hooks,” added Guthrie.  “I did advise debris haulers, if they don’t show up in Florida and fulfill the contracts that we have in place, that I will direct the Secretary of the Department of Management Services to place them on the suspended vendor list from doing business with the state of Florida.”  Guthrie said the Governor’s Saturday order worked, “as there were 150 dump trucks at Tropicana Field this morning.”

The Governor’s emergency order also directs all state, regional, and local governmental agencies, including law enforcement agencies, to allow Floridians to return to their properties when it is reasonably safe to do so after the storm.  “If they think that they’re not going to be let back on for many days, then fewer people are going to want to follow the evacuation order to begin with,” the Governor said.

Click here for the full National Hurricane Center briefing with maps.  Visit FloridaDisaster.org/Updates for the very latest state disaster management information.  That includes a complete list of statewide evacuation orders and a list and current status of shelters.  You can also review our past Hurricane Updates and subscribe to receive future updates in your inbox.

Please know that we at Lisa Miller & Associates are here 24/7 for you.  It may sound trite but we are all in this together, my friends and colleagues.  Please prepare and be aware!

Lisa & the LMA team

(Here’s the latest news from the Governor’s Office on specific state preparedness actions and a list of mobilized resources:)

State Preparedness Efforts

• The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has activated the State Emergency Operations Center to Level 1 since Tuesday, September 24, for Hurricane Helene, and is at a Level 1 for Hurricane Milton as of today, October 6, leading coordination efforts for the State Emergency Response Team. 
• The State Emergency Response Team is engaged in over 450 missions to assist counties in their preparedness efforts. These missions accomplish vital tasks like staging resources to deploy for immediate response as soon as it is safe to do so, protecting critical infrastructure facilities like hospitals and utility stations, and coordinating personnel statewide.
• FDEM is establishing a 10,000-person base camp at Tropicana Field to support ongoing debris operations and post-landfall responders.
• FDEM is coordinating the deployment of fuel and EV chargers to pre-stage along evacuation routes to support evacuations.
• The Florida Department of Veteran’s Affairs (FDVA) storm preparations are underway at all State Veterans’ Nursing Homes in anticipation of Hurricane Milton’s landfall.
• The Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) is performing maintenance on all equipment deployed during Hurricane Helene to ensure it is ready for use in Hurricane Milton. 
• FDLE Regional Operations Centers in Tampa, Orlando and Fort Myers are establishing their Regional Law Enforcement Coordination Teams (RLECT).
• The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) has readied high-water vehicles and all other storm response resources statewide so they may be rapidly deployed to assist Floridians in need in the event of damage or flooding. Contingency plans based on forecasted landfall locations have been developed and remain flexible based on the storm’s projected path.
• In addition to local officers, approximately 75, FWC officers are ready to deploy and respond with a variety of specialized equipment as necessary, such as: 
  • Airboats
  • Shallow draft boats
  • ATVs/Side-by-sides
  • Larger platform vessels
  • Four-wheel vehicles
  • Specialized high water vehicles 
• FWC Special Operations Group (SOG) teams will serve as reconnaissance units for the state and report on damage after the storm has made landfall. 
• FWC Aviation Section has been placed on standby and has readied all appropriate aircraft for potential deployment for aerial assistance, reconnaissance, and post-storm damage assessments when needed.

Health and Human Services

• The Florida Department of Health (DOH) deployed over 200 emergency response vehicles on the I-4 Corridor in preparation for the storm.
• The Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) has initiated an event in the Health Facility Reporting System (HFRS). Health care providers in the have been requested to provide information on census, available beds, evacuation status, accepting evacuees and generator needs from counties declared under EO-24-114. This information allows AHCA to assist health care providers in transferring patients if needed and ensure that health care providers in impacted areas have the necessary resources and adequate power.
  • 12 health care facilities have reported evacuations. This includes:
    • 6 assisted living facilities
    • 4 nursing home
    • 2 residential treatment centers
• The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) is working with Florida’s ports and fuel industry partners to ensure adequate fuel supplies are available, and with Florida’s agricultural partners so producers have adequate resources.
• The Florida Forest Service is staging equipment, like high-water vehicles, dump trucks, bulldozers, and front-end loaders to assist with road clearing.
• The Florida Forest Service and the Office of Agricultural Law Enforcement are supporting efforts to expedite debris removal in the Tampa Bay region.
• The Department is working to connect evacuating horse owners with open public and private facilities across the state.
• The Florida State Fairgrounds has opened the Bob Thomas Equestrian Center on a first come first serve basis for horse owners that are in the direct path of Hurricane Milton. To lean more and reserve a spot, visit floridastatefair.com/equestrian.
• The Department of Elder Affairs (DOEA) is contacting all our Area Agencies on Aging partners to receive updates on their ongoing preparation efforts and gather the status of any unmet needs.
• The Agency for Persons with Disabilities (APD) continues to contact facilities and providers to provide updates on protective actions, check the status of clients and residents, and assess unmet needs in potentially affected areas due to Hurricane Milton.
• The Department of Children and Families (DCF) is preparing for Hurricane Milton and ensuring providers in potentially impacted areas have the resources they need for the storm.
• The Department has secured supplies to ensure readiness in the event the Hope Bus is needed for deployment after landfall.
• The State Mental Health Treatment Facilities have activated their disaster preparation plans and are assessing facility readiness.  
• DCF has begun contacting foster families, adult protective services clients, and licensed providers in the storm’s path to ensure preparedness.
• DCF is making preliminary preparations for staffing shelters, delivering emergency supplies, and directing generators to critical human services infrastructure.

Infrastructure, Roads and State Closures

• The Florida Department of Transportation’s (FDOT) Hurricane Milton statewide preparedness efforts include clearing shoulders in preparation for potential Emergency Should Use (ESU):
  • Currently analyzing flooding vulnerabilities for major roadways and bridges.
  • Inspecting and clearing drainage systems, monitoring flood-prone and currently saturated areas, and pre-positioning pumps as appropriate.
  • Monitoring interstate traffic speeds and levels for the potential implementation of Emergency Shoulder Use (ESU) to assist with evacuations if necessary.
  • Securing high mast lighting, maintenance yards, active construction projects, rest areas/welcome centers, service plazas, and weigh stations that had returned to normal since Hurricane Helene.
  • Replenishing fuel reserves, checking generator readiness, and pre-positioning assets as appropriate.
  • Completing repairs on malfunctioning vehicles and equipment in preparation for deployment.
  • Initiated communication with modal partners – seaports, airports, railroads, transit, and spaceports. All partners are currently in monitoring posture.
  • Staging ITS trailers, as well as drone teams and equipment are being prepped and ready to deploy as needed.
  • Expanded Road Ranger Service across the impact zones.
• FDOT Teams continue to fully staff EOCs, RTMCs, and have crews in the field for storm preparations.
• Resources prepped and staged strategically (close to the projected path for quick implementation)
  • Cut & Toss Operations = 328 team members on standby
  • Over 1,015 generators
  • Over 350 pieces of heavy equipment and trucks
  • 67 pumps pre-positioned
  • Satellite internet equipment = 58 Starlink devices
  • Over 1,900 team members on standby for various emergency response efforts, including, damage assessment, flooding, traffic signals outages, etc.
  • FDOT has 20 drone pilots on standby
  • 8 ITS trailers staged
  • Over 150 bridge inspectors on standby
• FDOT has removed 139,718 cubic yards of debris statewide: 66,278 from state roads and 73,440 from local roads.
• FDOT is supporting our local communities with supplemental sand and debris removal from local roads on the barrier islands in Pinellas and Manatee counties.
• At the direction of Gov. DeSantis, FDOT is coordinating debris removal assignments for the Florida National Guard, Florida State Guard, Florida Highway Patrol, Florida Department of Agriculture, amongst others, who have activated available state personnel and resources to clear and haul remaining debris.
• In preparation for Hurricane Milton, FDOT’s out-of-state deployed resources have begun to transition back to Florida operations.
• FDOT encourages drivers to download the FL511 app or visit FL511.com for road/bridge closures and potential detours that may be activated. Remember to always follow the direction of local law enforcement and emergency personnel. 
• The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is coordinating with Landfill Strike Teams to assess Disaster Debris Management Sites (DDMS) operating as a result of Hurricane Helene.
• For counties and local governments in need of additional debris disposal locations, especially ahead of Hurricane Milton, DEP has approved all pending DDMS site activation requests and stands ready to approve the activation of any additional pre-authorized or new DDMSs that may be needed.
• Currently, 193 DDMS have been authorized to operate.
• Hurricane Helene kicked up significant amounts of sediment and sand along the coastlines in and along its path. DEP is working with local governments to manage the excess sand and continue removal efforts.
• For sand that has accumulated on private properties, residents should return it to the beach if it appears clean, smells fresh and is free of debris. If the sand contains debris, residents should contact their local government to find the nearest disposal site. DEP has worked with counties to establish temporary staging areas to properly screen the sand before it is returned to the beach.
• DEP is working with Florida’s Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network (FlaWARN), the Florida Rural Water Association and other response agencies to ensure preparations are underway to support drinking and wastewater facilities ahead of the anticipated heavy rains.
• Florida’s water management districts are engaging local governments and drainage operators throughout the state and are available to provide technical and other support, including deploying temporary pumps to alleviate localized flooding. As part of standard operations, DEP and Florida’s water management districts continue to monitor water systems and river levels as the storm develops.
• Currently, no Florida State Parks are closed because of this anticipated storm. For updates on state parks affected by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton, please visit: FloridaStateParks.org/StormUpdates.
• The Florida Highway Patrol (FHP) is staging high-water rescue vehicles in preparation for landfall. 
• FHP is mobilizing 74 Quick Response Force (QRF) Troopers to stage in preparation for the incoming storm.
• FHP is assisting with traffic control in St. Petersburg, around Taylor County, and outside Tropicana Field for debris cleanup crews.
• FHP is assisting with security at the Pinellas County Landfill.
• FHP is providing security at multiple fuel sites across the state.
• FHP is assisting with community patrols in Taylor County.
• FHP air support and drone assets are staged and prepared to deploy when needed.
• The Florida Department of Corrections (FDC) is actively preparing mitigation measures by deploying evacuation assets and identifying areas of evacuation. Updates will be made available to the public at www.fdc.myflorida.com/weather-updates.
• The Florida Department of Education (DOE) is actively monitoring Hurricane Milton and is working with school districts as they begin preparation efforts. The Department is also in close contact with districts that have been impacted by Hurricane Helene and will assist them with addressing critical needs ahead of the storm. Updates on school closures can be found at FLDOE.org/storminfo.

Resources for Employees, Businesses and Consumers

• The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR) is staging assets and personnel across 13 offices statewide and is prepared to surge resources to areas impacted by Hurricane Helene that receive a second impact from Hurricane Milton.
• Updates on business closures and business resources are consistently being updated at FloridaDisaster.biz.
• FloridaCommerce activated the private sector hotline at (850) 815-4925, open daily 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Inquiries may also be emailed to [email protected].
• FloridaCommerce is hosting daily private sector coordination calls. Briefings will be provided by Emergency Support Functions and private sector partners. For call information email [email protected].
• VISIT FLORIDA Emergency Accommodation Modules on Expedia, Priceline and Booking.com will remain available to provide real-time hotel availability and lodging resources for impacted Floridians and visitors. 

The Florida Small Business Development Center Network (SBDC) has pulled their Helene Mobile Assistance Centers from the field and will redeploy once storm conditions have passed.

Hurricane Milton Update of October 6, 2024 PM Update

October 6, 2024